Democrats say healthcare reform will happen. Meanwhile Republicans are using gridlock as a tactic to have more of a say in pending legislation. And if that wasn't confusing enough, Democrats have now lost their filibuster-proof majority in the Senate as Massachusetts voters elected Republican Scott Brown to take Senator Edward Kennedy's place in a special election held yesterday. All of this makes the timeframe for passage of any student aid reform unpredictable.

A Republican victory in Massachusetts has shifted - at least partially - the balance of power in the Senate away from the Democrats who have enjoyed a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority for the last year, a point Mr. Brown and Republican leaders reiterated over and over throughout his campaign.

"I have no doubt that the people of Massachusetts are looking at this race as a way to send Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama a message to stop this spending," House Minority Leader John Boehner said on the Laura Ingraham Show on Monday morning. Boehner predicted "the end of the Obama agenda" if healthcare reform fails to pass.

The fate of the student aid reform legislation, which has been passed in the House but not the Senate, is tied to the fate of the healthcare bill. If Congress can't pass a healthcare bill through the normal legislative process, Democratic leaders have said they will combine healthcare and student aid legislation in a reconciliation bill. Here are several possible ways the whole thing could play out.

Possible Scenarios

Scenario	Possible Outcomes
Senate passes merged bill (sent from House) before Scott Brown is seated in Massachusetts	The Senate could theoretically pass a healthcare bill before Brown is officially seated in the Senate, although Republicans are raising some legal questions as to whether Sen. Paul Kirk (D-MA), who has been temporarily filling the vacant Massachusetts Senate seat, would be eligible to vote on any bills after yesterday's election. Some Democratic Senators are also playing down this option saying that it would be in poor taste to pass healthcare legislation before seating Brown. The earliest date that Brown could be seated in the U.S. Senate is Feb. 3, according to Washington Research Group. The law in Massachusetts states that no certificate of election can be issued until at least ten days following a special election.
House passes existing Senate bill	Since the Senate passed a bill on Dec. 24, the House could simply pass the exact same bill without trying to iron out any differences between the bills, which would send the bill directly to President Obama. While Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has publicly stated she does not support that option, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) said on Tuesday that "the Senate bill is clearly better than nothing," CQ reports.
House and Senate use the reconciliation process to pass healthcare reform	Representative Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television's "Political Capital with Al Hunt" that reconciliation is an option. Using reconciliation would require lawmakers to scale back portions of the bill since the budget procedure only allows consideration of legislation that has a direct impact on the budget. "Even before Massachusetts and that race was on the radar screen, we prepared for the process of using reconciliation," said Van Hollen. If the Senate passes healthcare through budget reconciliation, it would likely be combined with the student aid bill (H.R. 3221), which has been waiting for a resolution to the healthcare debate before proceeding.
House passes existing Senate bill, then makes changes through budget reconciliation	Reconciliation adds additional complexity into the process since it is unclear which provisions could remain in the bill given parliamentary rules. In addition, Senate leaders have previously signaled resistance to passing healthcare through reconciliation.
Democratic leaders seek 60th vote among Republicans	Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) helped move the healthcare debate onto the Senate floor last year. By making several concessions, which could endanger Democratic support, the Democratic leadership could seek a 60th vote from Sen. Snowe or another moderate Republican lawmaker.
Healthcare reform bill dies	Many political experts believe that allowing healthcare to simply die this year would be a politically catastrophic error for Democrats, especially in an election year where Republicans are working to retake the House.

All of this makes the timeframe for passage of any student aid reform unpredictable. The timeframe for a student aid reconciliation bill continues to be dependent on the fate of healthcare legislation.

By Justin Draeger
Vice President of Public Policy and Advocacy

Posted 01/20/10 to www.NASFAA.org. Redistribution to non-NASFAA institutions is prohibited. Please submit Web site questions or comments to Web@NASFAA.org.